Likelihood of successful Chinese attack against Taiwan rising: RAND Corp.

Likelihood of successful Chinese attack against Taiwan rising: RAND Corp.

The Chinese destroyer Wuhan. (By Associated Press)

TAIPEI (Taiwan News) – The chances of success of an attack by China’s People’s Liberation Army against Taiwan are rising fast, according to a report by United States think tank the RAND Corporation.

Over the past few months, China has increased its military drills using jets and ships close to Taiwan, leading to speculation that it might try and launch an invasion as early as 2020.

According to RAND, which specializes in military affairs, the balance in the Taiwan Strait has been moving in China’s favor as the communist country was continuing to make progress in its preparations and training, the Apple Daily reported.

The think tank listed one reason as Taiwan’s failure to procure the right weapons quickly enough, and another as the U.S. being unable to respond timely to China’s rapid military modernization.

If China attacked Taiwan, it would use a two-pronged strategy, on the one hand take advantage of opportunities and strike quickly when conflict erupted, and on the other hand, prevent the U.S. from obtaining and using helpful information, the RAND report said.

Beijing had already spent sufficient effort on the development of modern fighter jets and air-to-air missiles to inflict grave losses on Taiwanese and U.S. air forces and military bases, while it also could be expected to successfully interfere with electronic systems, raising the possibility of a successful attack against Taiwan, RAND concluded.

The think tank suggested Taiwan improve its capability to neutralize China’s air defenses and its attack abilities, and to disrupt its satellites. Other coastal countries in the region should also upgrade their defense capabilities against Chinese attacks, the Apple Daily reported.